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China is boycotting American farms. So why are farmers so optimistic?

Bullets:

China is shifting its supply chains for agricultural products to Russia and South America.

Over $12 billion in US farm exports to China is at risk. There are no outstanding orders for American ag to China for the rest of this year, and that demand is being met by booming exports from Brazil and Argentina.

US trade officials are scrambling to sell to new markets in Europe and Asia, but the high tariffs on other industries are also pushing buyers to Brazil.

Despite vanishing export markets and falling commodity prices, American farmers report high levels of optimism.

Resources and links:

USDA’s Rollins: ‘Let’s Go Barnstorm The World And Find New Partners’ For Trade

https://www.agweb.com/news/policy/politics/usdas-rollins-lets-go-barnstorm-world-and-find-new-partners-trade

China Loads Up on Brazilian Soybeans as Trade War Escalates

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-04-11/global-food-roundup-china-snaps-up-brazilian-soy-as-trade-war-escalates

From Meat to Grains, Trade War Is Boon to Brazil, Argentina

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-21/from-meat-to-grains-trade-war-is-a-boon-to-brazil-and-argentina

US Small-Business Optimism Soars to Three-Year-High After Trump Win

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-10/us-small-business-optimism-soars-to-three-year-high-after-trump-win

China Loads Up on Brazilian Soybeans as Trade War Escalates

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-04-11/global-food-roundup-china-snaps-up-brazilian-soy-as-trade-war-escalates

China Is Said Seeking Argentina Crops as It Skirts US Tariffs

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-08/china-is-said-seeking-argentina-crops-as-it-skirts-us-tariffs

US Farm Sentiment at 4-Year High as Trump Seeks Trade Deals

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-03/us-farm-sentiment-at-4-year-high-as-trump-pushes-for-trade-deals

The other paycheck: how off-farm income keeps farmers farming

https://www.fb.org/market-intel/the-other-paycheck-how-off-farm-income-keeps-farmers-farming

Forbes, Small Business Optimism Rises In May Despite Tariff Chaos

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brandonkochkodin/2025/06/10/small-business-optimism-rises-in-may-despite-tariff-chaos/

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