A word on international shipping practices. Many ships today sail under what are called 'flags of convenience' which is to say, they are registered in places like Liberia or Panama to gain a tax advantage. Further obscuring ownership is the use of shell companies in tax havens such as the Cayman Islands or Seychelles. I've no doubt Iranian or Chinese intelligence can see through that deception and pass the information along to Ansar Allah, including such things as cargo destination, which if Israel, puts the ship in question at risk, regardless of ownership.
If you're wondering why ships are attacked that have no apparent connection to Israel, either through ownership or cargo destination, there's your answer.
From California to Israel is shorter via the Red Sea, for rocket fuel, other high octane fuels and some munitions which can't go by air presumably because they leak dangerous fumes if unpressurized. Risky in travelling the Med too with such cargoes, but much less so.
After playing whack-a-mole with Houthis for months the USA may have estimated this is just a cost, comes down to being just a little money, and decided to send all these cargoes around the Cape instead, or simply use more pressurized cargo aircraft. Not worth the small risk of damaging an aircraft carrier and thus sending the world the signal that some vulnerability exists.
All speculative i admit. But maps of straits all around the world will certainly be altering their military 'shapes' around the capabilities of modern missiles and air and naval drones. There is no effective Law of the Sea, never was agreed to, and the whole enforced 'Freedom of Navigation' concept is under more threat everywhere now than for 80+ years. Global shipping and London-based maritime insurance businesses are entering an interval of change.
It should be noted that Russian merchant ships also pass through the Red Sea unhindered. It should also be mentioned that some time ago Russia stated that if the USA continues supplying weapons to Russia's enemies that they would respond in kind. The recent increase in the range and accuracy of missiles may therefore have a Russian element to it in the form of assistance to Iran which then finds its way to Yemen. Likewise for China, which may be supplying components or even the finished product. It's unlikely that Ansar Allah (*) has the capacity to build missiles with enough range and accuracy to hit Israel, which also explains why the US has withdrawn from attacking, since their carriers are now at risk.
(*) I use the proper name for the political and military alliance that began with the Houtis but has since grown to include members of other groups and even foreign volunteers.
is there a shortage of ships as non-CN flagged ships need to make longer journeys ? would that not lead to a capacity shortage or are CN-flagged ships picking up the slack?
A word on international shipping practices. Many ships today sail under what are called 'flags of convenience' which is to say, they are registered in places like Liberia or Panama to gain a tax advantage. Further obscuring ownership is the use of shell companies in tax havens such as the Cayman Islands or Seychelles. I've no doubt Iranian or Chinese intelligence can see through that deception and pass the information along to Ansar Allah, including such things as cargo destination, which if Israel, puts the ship in question at risk, regardless of ownership.
If you're wondering why ships are attacked that have no apparent connection to Israel, either through ownership or cargo destination, there's your answer.
Thanks for all that. Very helpful
From California to Israel is shorter via the Red Sea, for rocket fuel, other high octane fuels and some munitions which can't go by air presumably because they leak dangerous fumes if unpressurized. Risky in travelling the Med too with such cargoes, but much less so.
After playing whack-a-mole with Houthis for months the USA may have estimated this is just a cost, comes down to being just a little money, and decided to send all these cargoes around the Cape instead, or simply use more pressurized cargo aircraft. Not worth the small risk of damaging an aircraft carrier and thus sending the world the signal that some vulnerability exists.
All speculative i admit. But maps of straits all around the world will certainly be altering their military 'shapes' around the capabilities of modern missiles and air and naval drones. There is no effective Law of the Sea, never was agreed to, and the whole enforced 'Freedom of Navigation' concept is under more threat everywhere now than for 80+ years. Global shipping and London-based maritime insurance businesses are entering an interval of change.
It should be noted that Russian merchant ships also pass through the Red Sea unhindered. It should also be mentioned that some time ago Russia stated that if the USA continues supplying weapons to Russia's enemies that they would respond in kind. The recent increase in the range and accuracy of missiles may therefore have a Russian element to it in the form of assistance to Iran which then finds its way to Yemen. Likewise for China, which may be supplying components or even the finished product. It's unlikely that Ansar Allah (*) has the capacity to build missiles with enough range and accuracy to hit Israel, which also explains why the US has withdrawn from attacking, since their carriers are now at risk.
(*) I use the proper name for the political and military alliance that began with the Houtis but has since grown to include members of other groups and even foreign volunteers.
Some background is probably in order:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/12/who-are-yemens-houthis-a-basic-guide
is there a shortage of ships as non-CN flagged ships need to make longer journeys ? would that not lead to a capacity shortage or are CN-flagged ships picking up the slack?
This should answer some of your questions.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/baltic
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/baltic_dry_index.asp
https://www.balticexchange.com/en/data-services/market-information0/indices.html
any data on Suez Canal revenue ? are they raising rates per ship as the number pass ing through the canal have declined ?
any data on China refurbishing South Africa ports at Durban , Port Elizabeth, Cape Town area ?as ships may need to cock in and refuel there?
You can compare 2023 to 2024 rates here, and yes, they've gone up.
https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Tolls/Pages/TollsTable.aspx