Israel can't afford to shoot down Iran's missiles, and can't afford not to
This is a transcript, for the video found here:
Bullets:
Most of the ballistic missiles launched by Iran cost up to $1 million each. But intercepting each of these missiles costs Israel two interceptor missiles costing $2 million apiece.
At such an extreme disparity, Iran likely considers each ballistic launch a success whether or not their launch hits the intended target, or instead destroys two Israeli interceptor missiles.
Analysts report that the Israelis are already down to just days of supply on their long-range interceptors, the Arrows.
Rebuilding stocks of advanced munitions are impossible while China maintains strict export bans on rare earth metals and magnets.
Report:
Good morning.
It’s a strange development in modern warfare, that defensive weapons now cost much more than offensive weapons. It’s almost always the other way around, and it’s changing the realities of how wars are fought.
Israel is running low on interceptor missiles, which they deploy daily, now, to destroy inbound ballistic missiles launched from Iran. The United States is also running low, and ironically the supply chains to build more of them run through China, and Chinese export bans on magnets and rare earths mean that all these missiles that are fired cannot be replaced.
But there’s another problem, which is that the interceptor missiles cost much more than the projectiles that they are shooting down. Wall Street Journal leads us off, the interceptor missiles cost the IDF about $200 million a day, and the damage caused by inbound missiles run higher than that. Economists running the numbers say that Israel can withstand a short war, but not a prolonged one that lasts a month. I don’t know anyone on the planet who thinks the definition of a long conflict is 30 days, besides economists.
The biggest cost to the Israelis are the interceptor missiles, and the mounting costs to fight off the incoming missiles are going to put pressure on them to end the war quickly. The main factor that determines the cost of the war is how long it lasts. There is a big difference between a war that lasts a week, compared to two weeks or a month.
Here are the numbers. Over several days, Iran launched more than 400 missiles. Every time the IDF turns on David’s Sling, it costs $700,000 for two missiles. The Arrow 3 system – the Journal and the Washington Post said a few days ago that the IDF is critically short of those, with fewer than 2 weeks left – those are either $2 million each, or $3 million depending on whether they’re using the new ones.
This is a very different war, then, than the one in Gaza. Inbound ballistics landing in your own biggest cities is different from fighting on the ground in someone else’s. Hundreds of buildings in Israel have been destroyed or badly damaged, with targets costing up to tens of millions of dollars to repair.
The United States recently faced similar problems. Our Navy deployed to the Red Sea and engaged Houthis, who launched low-cost drones and missiles, but engaging those cost a lot of money. After several months, the Navy lost several Reaper drones, and an F18 fell off the side of the Truman. But by far the biggest cost for that whole campaign, again, was the cost of interceptor missiles. This report is from earlier in the year. The US Navy fired 220 missiles and 160 shells, many of them against drones. 120 SM-2’s are $2 million each. 80 SM-6’s at $4 million each. 20 SM-3’s go from $9 million to $28 million per. Those are for defensive missiles only, and that’s over $500 million. These numbers don’t account for the cost of Tomahawks and other ordnance launched at land targets.
Using missiles to shoot down inexpensive drones is just a terrible equation for us. But against more advanced missiles, it makes more sense.
And that part is true. Capital ships cost billions of dollars each, and they need to be protected at any cost, even from drones. Four million dollars’ worth of rockets fired to stop an advanced missile is much more justifiable than doing so for older ones, and especially for drones. The Houthis know that every drone they send in the direction of the American Navy brings down two interceptor missiles. That’s an operational success, and the Pentagon realized that the Navy would be out of missiles – and money -- long before the Houthis ran out of drones.
But the American Navy had another option, and can just sail away and be done with it, and move targets outside of range. Tel Aviv and Haifa, obviously, don’t have that luxury, but the calculus is the same. They have no choice but to engage inbound ballistics, at any cost, because they might crash into a house, or a skyscraper, or a military headquarters. And that is very unlike a ship on the water, moving and dodging and where the inbound might just splash into the water. A missile or a drone launched at a land target is going to land somewhere, and if it falls into a city it’s going to hit something.
So looking at the math again. Engaging an inbound with the Arrow system costs $4 million. How many missiles does Iran have, and how much do they cost? Most of the missiles cost around $1 million, according to analysts, and it may be less than that. So every time Iran launches one for $1 million, the Israelis launch 2 for $4 million to stop it. So it may not matter much to the Iranians if their missiles hit the target or not.
The Israelis are running out of missiles then, and of money. But the world is also getting a crash course on where things really come from. Chicken doesn’t come from KFC, and electricity doesn’t come from a hole in your wall, and missiles don’t come from the Pentagon. Every single one of them needs magnets and rare earth metals, and those all come from China. Every missile launched, every bomb dropped—none of them can be replaced until China agrees to sell their magnets and metals to our defense contractors again.
This is Taihu Lake, Jiangsu province. Be Good.
Resources and links:
Israel’s War on Iran Is Costing Hundreds of Millions of Dollars a Day
US aircraft carrier to leave after intense Yemeni strikes: Report
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2025/04/30/747112/Yemen-United-States-aircraft-carrier-leave-Red-Sea
Military.com, Navy's Fight in Red Sea Used 220 Missiles, But Officials Say That's Changing
Iran's missile arsenal explained: What's been fired at Israel and what's to come?
https://www.newarab.com/news/iran-missile-arsenal-whats-been-fired-israel-what-hasnt
Wall Street Journal, Israel Is Running Low on Defensive Interceptors, Official Says
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-is-running-low-on-defensive-interceptors-official-says-fd64163d
Washington Post, Israel-Iran conflict may last only as long as their missiles hold out
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/06/17/israel-iran-missile-conflict/
Houthi rebels have shot down 7 US Reaper drones in recent weeks
China’s rare-earth mineral squeeze will hit the Pentagon hard
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2025/04/chinas-rare-earth-mineral-squeeze-will-hit-pentagon-hard/404776/
these American AD missiles were never designed to be used in combat, or manufactured to scale. All part of a US mythology that says US has the best weapons so no one will ever fire at us.
But they are a fantastic method to funnel cash back to Washington.
Perhaps China can use their rare earth supply chains to shut down these stupid wars.
The question now is one of economics. Who can last longer in a shooting war? Who can afford to keep up the pace?
The US and Israel have money, but no supply chain to replace missiles. Drones are cheap and can be launched from anywhere. This might be the dumbest war ever launched.