Israel is running out of interceptor missiles. China’s export bans mean they can’t be replaced.
This is a transcript, for the video found here:
Bullets:
Iranian missiles have struck high-priority targets in Israel, including military and intelligence headquarters buildings and the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange.
Critical shortages are developing across missile systems of all types in Western defense arsenals, and Pentagon officials have been aware of the problem for months.
Israeli interceptor missiles are also running low, with some estimates at just ten days' supply.
These shortages will impel tough decisions at the operations level, to allow some inbound ballistics through.
But the high profile of some of the targets impacted suggests that Iran may be successfully deploying hypersonic missiles, or other ballistics that can evade the IDF's air defense systems.
Boeing is one of the key suppliers for the Arrow missiles, used in Israel's missile defense systems. But Boeing is on China's export sanctions list, and is one of many military contractors who are specifically targeted by China's rare earth metals bans.
Report:
Good morning.
Military planners in Washington and in Israel are deeply concerned, that missiles are being used up far faster than they can be replaced. The Washington Post reported a few days ago that Israel’s arsenal of missile interceptors is running out. They wonder, how long each side—Iran and Israel—can maintain operations, and the answer might depend on who runs out of missiles first. The Post quoted an official briefed on US and Israel intelligence, and some assessments suggest that Israel can maintain air defenses for fewer than two weeks. At that time, either the US needs to give the Israelis more rockets, or get more directly involved ourselves. Soon, the Israelis will need to be more selective, which inbound missiles to engage.
The Wall Street Journal followed up the next day. Arrows are part of Israel’s missile defense system, and Israel is running low on those. So there is strong doubt that Israel’s capability to stop inbound long-range missiles will last much longer. The United States is sending more missile defense systems over, but planners say the US inventories are also being run down. Neither the US nor the Israelis can just intercept missiles all day, playing catch.
Over just a few days, Iran launched 370 ballistic missiles, and 30 got through. Lots of reasons why a single missile may get through the Israeli air defense systems—radar systems can make mistakes, or the interceptor missiles can malfunction, or human error. A lot of things need to go exactly right to hit inbound munitions traveling faster than the speed of sound.
But Iran’s tactics are different from anything the Israelis have seen in the past. A single missile launched at Israel can be engaged, but Iran is launching dozens of them at the same time. So here we’ve got a math problem—when Arrow missiles engage these inbound ballistics, they launch at least two at a time. Typically two are used, per salvo. This approach means that they need to have a lot of them. They need a sufficient stock of interceptor missiles, and – goes without saying – the ability to replace them as they’re used.
So to engage dozens of missiles that are inbound, air defense units need twice that many. And remember what the Washington Post said, which is that the Israelis soon will need to become choosy, about which targets to engage. But the analysis here, in Al Jazeera, is wondering something else. The missiles that are getting through suggest that Iran is now using hypersonic missiles, which can’t be intercepted by anybody. Hypersonics can also trick air defense systems. Because for some of the missiles that have gotten through, it suggests deep problems on the ground in Israel. A rocket hit the Kirya, which is Israel’s military HQ in Tel Aviv. Another inbound hit a military intelligence center used by the Mossad, and another hit the stock exchange building. What we’re asking here, is that IF the IDF forces are able to pick and choose which inbound rockets to engage, one should think that their own military and intelligence headquarters buildings and stock exchange would be high-priority. But they were hit anyway.
Things are breaking down on the operational level then, for Israeli missile defense units. Either the Israeli air defense forces are out of missiles and cannot stop Iranian inbound ballistics from hitting even the highest-profile targets, or the missiles employed in these cases are hypersonics and cannot be stopped at all. But in either event the Israelis and our own militaries are drawing down arsenals of interceptor rockets, and we need materials from China to build more.
Boeing is a lead contractor for these Arrow systems, here is the press release announcing the Boeing agreement with Israel Aircraft Industries to build components for the Arrow missiles in the United States. I know Boeing has a lot of problems but can you at least spell the name of our country right in the headline? Israel needs Boeing to build more Arrows, and Boeing needs Chinese rare earth metals to build them. And China has very strict export bans on any of their rare earth metals that are heading to the United States, and most especially to military contractors in the United States. Not just the US, but around the world. Missiles and spacecraft are some of the many advanced manufacturing industries impacted by the Chinese export bans.
China’s Commerce Ministry has barred Chinese companies from dealing at all with American companies, and especially companies like Boeing. Boeing is one of many firms whose only source for materials in avionics is China—they either get it from China, or not at all. Chinese port officials here in some places will allow some exports if the shipment contains only trace amounts of the rare earths, and only if they’re not outbound to the United States. But in most places, not even that is allowed—exporters need to prove that there are no heavy rare earths before they can get on a boat.
This is Shanghai. Be good.
Resources and links:
The Consequences of China’s New Rare Earths Export Restrictions
https://www.csis.org/analysis/consequences-chinas-new-rare-earths-export-restrictions
Reuters, China hits back at US tariffs with export controls on key rare earths
https://www.reuters.com/world/china-hits-back-us-tariffs-with-rare-earth-export-controls-2025-04-04/
New York Times, China Halts Critical Exports as Trade War Intensifies
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/13/business/china-rare-earths-exports.html
Wall Street Journal, Israel’s World-Class Air Defenses Aren’t Stopping Every Missile. Here’s Why.
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/israel-iran-conflict-news/card/israel-s-world-class-air-defenses-aren-t-stopping-every-missile-here-s-why-A4m1ktCLX0LKtg9dZ60S
Wall Street Journal, Israel Is Running Low on Defensive Interceptors, Official Says
Israel running low on Arrow interceptors, US burning through its systems too – WSJ
Washington Post, Israel-Iran conflict may last only as long as their missiles hold out
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/06/17/israel-iran-missile-conflict/
How has Iran managed to pierce through Israel’s air defence systems?
Israel Aircraft Industries and Boeing Sign an Agreement to Establish Production Infrastructure to Manufacture Arrow Missile Components in the United State
https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2003-02-11-Israel-Aircraft-Industries-and-Boeing-Sign-an-Agreement-to-Establish-Production-Infrastructure-to-Manufacture-Arrow-Missile-Components-in-the-United-State
Boeing Finalizes Deal To Build Arrow Missile Components
https://insidedefense.com/daily-news/boeing-finalizes-deal-build-arrow-missile-components
Iran strikes Israeli stock exchange building in Tel Aviv; Watch video
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/iran-strikes-israeli-stock-exchange-building-in-tel-aviv-watch-video/articleshow/121946846.cms?from=mdr
Telegraph, Israel admits Iran hit military targets
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/06/17/israel-admits-iran-hit-military-targets-war-mossad-missiles/
About time Israel got a taste of its own medicine. Perhaps after experiencing what they have subjected neighboring countries to for decades they might not be so casual and cavalier about it
All of your posts are informative — and non-trivial. This one in particular touches upon issues of history, geopolitics and technology.
Could the British Empire have existed without quantities of weapons of mass killing?
Could a world of military “first strike” agression exist without magnets?
Will the West be able to develop, over 2 to 20 years, new technologies to bypass rare earths?
Consult your periodic table.