This chart shows the NYMEX oil future for Dec 2030. It has been trading since 2020.
Never been below 47 (even when spot prices went to negative because no one could take delivery) and has never been above 66.5.
Most oil gets traded long term on long term agreements - only the odd bits of unsold oil trade in spot markets. The long term trend for oil has been flat or if anything rising over past 5 years.
Now you may realize how levels of what amounts to sophisticated “risk arbitrage” has an enormous effect on most of the largest commodity trading markets. I can hardly await the expansion of direct trading, not denominated in USD and bypassing SWIFT, between principals via CIPS or other non-commercial bank alternatives. I want to see the Pharisees squeezed dry and eliminated from global commodities markets. Watch gold and diamonds — two markets that are now moving in different directions.
Long term contracts dominate the largest commodity trading markets (Not gold, silver, but the ones where products are mined and used as opposed to investment products).
Whether payments go through Swift or elsewhere matters not at all.
Contracts are going to be defined in dollars because that allows both sides to easily hedge the currency risk into whatever currency they want. Whether they are settled in dollars or anything else matters nothing at all.
Meanwhile the spot market is purely a minor market for trading the odd lots that were not part of long term deals.
Spot prices jump up and down depending on whether traders want full warehouses/storage units or empty ones.
Diamonds are fallingbecause it is largely a used product - for jewelry and industry, and Lab grown diamonds are much cheaper. Gold rises because it is mostly an investment. You can interpret gold (and bitcoin and the like) rises as the inverse of the lack of trust in the dollar (and currencies in general).
But it will take decades before the dollar is replaced even though only a few more years before US weapons are no longer the currency or conventional war and US trade has any credibility at all.
(Hint - if you are a drug lord with $10bn to place, you want low risk, high liquidity - with the ability to trade in $1bn lots or bigger. Where are you going to go?)
Mostly specious arguments — everyone knows most term buyers and sellers of commodities do so under long-term contracts. It was the basis for project finance. That’s not the issue. The speculating intermediaries with capital to position need to be flushed, including their apologists. It’s inevitable as the world is slowly but surely identifying the financier role from AD 1. Stephen Mitford Goodson’s “The Rise of Central Banking and he Enslavement of Mankind” was an historical survey that identified the financier’s role in collapsing the Roman denarius. But it’s always those that claim to be victims that are disingenuously manipulating behind the scenes: media, academe, banks, and in modern “democracies”, the politicians.
Now that is specious - all those long term buyers and sellers trading at near constant prices and you want to flush out the handful that trade the odd lots?
Collapsing Roman denarius - Roman currency was still being used in 1000 AD - over 500 years after the collapse of the Roman empire. That is the point - reserve currencies are needed long after the empire dies.
Fair chunk of paranoia at the end there.
What I can't understand are all these theories that US will be brought down by its curreny. The currency is as strong as ever. Economically US has been second to China since 2016 and is falling fast. Militarily its bluffs get called again and again - FFS it lost a war with Yemen in front of everyone!! Soft Power it is collapsing as the world sees it supporting Genocide and it came clean on just how evil its terrorism supporting policies in Syria have been. Meanwhile Ukraine lost a third of its pop to emigration and 6% of the rest died fighting Russia - all because US told them to. And they are losing the AI game to China.
Everything US is collapsing EXCEPT the USD. It is stark staring obvious to anyone who looks.
You really have removed your mask and we see whom you clearly represent. I’m waiting til there’s a complete flush. Hold on to those USD Mordechai because it’s down 11% this year on a trade weighted basis. Bye. I’m off to Eilat to check the situation there.
But forward rates for Oil have long long been lower than spot prices or all those expert forecasts.
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-CL1!/?contract=CLZ2030&timeframe=ALL
This chart shows the NYMEX oil future for Dec 2030. It has been trading since 2020.
Never been below 47 (even when spot prices went to negative because no one could take delivery) and has never been above 66.5.
Most oil gets traded long term on long term agreements - only the odd bits of unsold oil trade in spot markets. The long term trend for oil has been flat or if anything rising over past 5 years.
Now you may realize how levels of what amounts to sophisticated “risk arbitrage” has an enormous effect on most of the largest commodity trading markets. I can hardly await the expansion of direct trading, not denominated in USD and bypassing SWIFT, between principals via CIPS or other non-commercial bank alternatives. I want to see the Pharisees squeezed dry and eliminated from global commodities markets. Watch gold and diamonds — two markets that are now moving in different directions.
no not at all.
Long term contracts dominate the largest commodity trading markets (Not gold, silver, but the ones where products are mined and used as opposed to investment products).
Whether payments go through Swift or elsewhere matters not at all.
Contracts are going to be defined in dollars because that allows both sides to easily hedge the currency risk into whatever currency they want. Whether they are settled in dollars or anything else matters nothing at all.
Meanwhile the spot market is purely a minor market for trading the odd lots that were not part of long term deals.
Spot prices jump up and down depending on whether traders want full warehouses/storage units or empty ones.
Diamonds are fallingbecause it is largely a used product - for jewelry and industry, and Lab grown diamonds are much cheaper. Gold rises because it is mostly an investment. You can interpret gold (and bitcoin and the like) rises as the inverse of the lack of trust in the dollar (and currencies in general).
But it will take decades before the dollar is replaced even though only a few more years before US weapons are no longer the currency or conventional war and US trade has any credibility at all.
(Hint - if you are a drug lord with $10bn to place, you want low risk, high liquidity - with the ability to trade in $1bn lots or bigger. Where are you going to go?)
Mostly specious arguments — everyone knows most term buyers and sellers of commodities do so under long-term contracts. It was the basis for project finance. That’s not the issue. The speculating intermediaries with capital to position need to be flushed, including their apologists. It’s inevitable as the world is slowly but surely identifying the financier role from AD 1. Stephen Mitford Goodson’s “The Rise of Central Banking and he Enslavement of Mankind” was an historical survey that identified the financier’s role in collapsing the Roman denarius. But it’s always those that claim to be victims that are disingenuously manipulating behind the scenes: media, academe, banks, and in modern “democracies”, the politicians.
Now that is specious - all those long term buyers and sellers trading at near constant prices and you want to flush out the handful that trade the odd lots?
Collapsing Roman denarius - Roman currency was still being used in 1000 AD - over 500 years after the collapse of the Roman empire. That is the point - reserve currencies are needed long after the empire dies.
Fair chunk of paranoia at the end there.
What I can't understand are all these theories that US will be brought down by its curreny. The currency is as strong as ever. Economically US has been second to China since 2016 and is falling fast. Militarily its bluffs get called again and again - FFS it lost a war with Yemen in front of everyone!! Soft Power it is collapsing as the world sees it supporting Genocide and it came clean on just how evil its terrorism supporting policies in Syria have been. Meanwhile Ukraine lost a third of its pop to emigration and 6% of the rest died fighting Russia - all because US told them to. And they are losing the AI game to China.
Everything US is collapsing EXCEPT the USD. It is stark staring obvious to anyone who looks.
You really have removed your mask and we see whom you clearly represent. I’m waiting til there’s a complete flush. Hold on to those USD Mordechai because it’s down 11% this year on a trade weighted basis. Bye. I’m off to Eilat to check the situation there.
Well do tell me who I represent then.
USD is up slightly over 5 years - you are just cherry picking dates.
Eilat - don't tell me who you represent - I really do not want to know.